with 44 finding strong and improving conditions (the remainder
reported stable local economies).
Regionally, all four main regions posted gains. The second
quarter marked the period in which all four regions crossed
above the 100-point mark, signifying market expansion. The
South provided the strongest gain, as the index increased
13. 2 points to a value of 113.6—the highest of all regions.
The Midwest had the second highest index value—112.5—
following a 9. 3 point rise. The West region posted a 5. 8 point
advance, closing the quarter with the third best index value of
104.6. The Northeast posted an index of 100.7, the result of a
7. 5 point advance in market conditions.
Looking ahead at the third quarter of 2014, SIOR members
expect the outlook to remain positive but level out—76 percent
of respondents indicated growth in the 1-15 percent range,
while 21 percent felt the market will maintain current levels.
Only 3 percent of SIORs expected conditions to decline.
GEORGE RATIU is Director of
Quantitative & Commercial Research
with the National Association of
REALTORS® in Washington, D.C.
where he produces the Commercial
Real Estate Outlook—a quarterly
forecast of core property sector
fundamentals. He manages a research
portfolio focused on macroeconomic
trends, commercial real estate,
and global investments. Ratiu
provides economic and industry
insights in publications and keynote
presentations across the U.S.
ABOUT THE AUTHORS: LAWRENCE
YUN is Senior Vice President and
Chief Economist at the National
Association of Realtors®. He writes
regular columns on real estate market
trends, creates NAR’s forecasts,
and participates in many economic
forecasting panels, including Blue Chip
and the Harvard University Industrial
Economist Council. He received his
undergraduate degree from Purdue
University and earned his Ph.D. from
the University of Maryland.