ABOUT THE AUTHORS
LAWRENCE YUN is Senior Vice
President and Chief Economist at the
National Association of Realtors®. He
writes regular columns on real estate market
trends, creates NAR’s forecasts, and
participates in many economic forecasting
panels, including Blue Chip and the
Harvard University Industrial Economist
Council. He received his undergraduate
degree from Purdue University and earned
his Ph.D. from the University of Maryland.
GEORGE RATIU is Director of
Quantitative & Commercial Research
with the National Association of
REALTORS® in Washington, D.C.
He manages a research portfolio focused
on macroeconomic trends, commercial real
estate, and global investments. He discusses
real estate research in major media outlets
and provides economic and industry insights
in publications and keynote presentations across the U.S. He produces
NAR’s Commercial Real Estate Outlook—a quarterly forecast of
core property sector fundamentals. He also directs national projects
focused on regional market performance and financing.
reporting volumes rising above historical averages
(compared with 12 percent the prior quarter). Development
conditions were on an upward swing, with 46 percent of
SIOR members finding it a buyer’s market. Investment
prices remained moderate—lower than construction costs
in 65 percent of the markets.
Local economic conditions varied across the country, but
improvement seemed noticeable. Nationally, 26 percent of
SIORs reported negative impacts on their markets due to
local economies. In contrast, national economic trends were
taking a toll on 48 percent of SIOR markets.
The South and the Midwest offered the strongest market
conditions, as evidenced by index values of 104.6 and 94.2.
The Midwest had a more difficult fourth quarter, however,
recording a decline of 4. 4 points. The West and Northeast
regions posted solid gains in the fourth quarter, rising 6. 4
points and 1. 4 points, respectively.
Looking ahead at 2014, SIOR members expect the outlook
to improve—77 percent of respondents indicated growth
in the 1-15 percent range. One in five SIORs expects
conditions to remain the same.